Archive for the ‘Transformation Timing’ Category

The Stone Age Didn’t End Because the World Ran Out of Stones

August 25th

In an article on the Saudi reaction to President Obama’s call for Energy Independence Jad Mouawad of the New York Times “Green Inc.” notes the ever-present dynamics of the geopolitics of oil.  (“Saudi Blasts American Energy Policy.”)

The Saudis are as sensitive to the cross currents of energy policy change as anyone.  In “In a short and strongly-worded essay in Foreign Policy magazine, Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former ambassador to the United States and a nephew to King Abdullah” critiques the broad statements of the Obama Administration.  His point recalls Sheik Yamani’s famous line about the stone age.

What this thought points to is the question of how soon green technology is going to replace the oil economy.  While it makes the stream of articles on China’s development of solar panels and electric vehicles all the more interesting, it does recognize that no one can imagine a technology that is going to radically shift the energy balance in the next five years.

In the meantime, OPEC looks quite different today than it did in 1973.  The difference is not in the names of the countries that are the sources of oil but in their leadership and their relationship to the U.S.  Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria could not be more different today than they were in 1973 when Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon first launched the policy of “energy independence.”

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The Hardest Prediction of All, Seeing the Future

August 24th

Predicting the future makes most people so nervous that they often make the same joke about Yogi Berra’s insight that the future is the hardest thing to forecast.   But in spite of the normal anxiety, we can anticipate that there are going to be a boatload of stories about the future now that it begins to appear that the financial crisis is passing.

Today brought two new contributions.  First, Deutsche Post has just published a study of the future entitled “Delivering Tomorrow: Customer Needs in 2020 and Beyond, a Global Delphi Study.”  The study draws conclusions from an intensive examination of expert perspectives on a number of critical issues that will define our future:  what will happen to the price of oil?  what will the progress of climate change mean?  how will global interactivity evolve?

Perhaps the cultural differences in perspective offer theses about the future that move beyond traditional boundaries.  Or, possibly its just going to be more interesting to think about these long term issues now that we are on this side of the financial crisis than on the old, optimistic one with which we are familiar.  But the 2020 study offers numerous startling theses.  What will a world look like when China is the undisputed winner of global economic competition?  What will global transportation be like when polar routes have been opened up by polar melting.

The McKinsey Quarterly then wrote about one of its classic articles, the next revolution in interaction,  Like Deutsche Post, McKinsey found that the progression of interactive technologies will continue to evolve and to shape the future.   The point of the 2004 article from McKinsey was to encourage a focus on trends that will enable companies to attain sustainable competitive advantage.

Instead of strategies that focus on cost cutting, a short-term benefit that can ultimately be copied, both research sources encouraged their readers to focus on trends that would enable customized solutions.  Whether the discussion is of the evolution of the logistics business or the changing nature of enterprise in an information rich marketplace, trends that make it possible to individualize solutions will be dominant ones in shaping the future.  For those who become anxious with discussion of the future and its uncertainties, these studies point to the need to engineer organizations and infrastructures that facilitate agility and adaptability to changing customer requirements.

This may be hard to communicate.  Individualization?  Adaptability?  Most will say, but what will the future be like?  Talk of “open standards” and “plug and play” solutions seems to be a slide into software jargon.  Yet the idea of creating a framework that is the opposite of command and control seems to be captured by the iPhone ads.  Apple has communicated a framework.  Understanding that “there’s an ap for that” may turn out to be Steve Jobs biggest contribution of all.

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Calling the Turn

August 20th

The financial crisis of 2008 raised the question of whether we are facing a turn, resetting to a new normal or pausing before the resumption of growth. Knowing where you are is critical. Those who bet on future growth that doesn’t materialize will lose the race and even bankrupt themselves. But those who bet on decline when they are only seeing a pause will stagnate and they too will lose.

What’s hard to see from the outside is the way that the stakeholders will work overtime to assert that the curves are heading up. Vested interest is so powerful that they will honestly believe that the Sun is the Moon.

Great leaders will have the courage to call the turn.

Listening to Jim Collins talk about his new book How the Mighty Fall, in which he traces the five stages of ascendancy and decline, you can see that this is is going to be one of the enduring questions of our time.

The experience of living through the worst financial decline in 80 years and not being sure of what you saw will be an framing memory that will structure our perceptions.  The fear of imminent decline will cast a long shadow into the future.s

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