Archive for the ‘Transformation Timing’ Category

Radical Transparency

September 10th

Daniel Goleman, the author of Emotional Intelligence and other related works, has written a new book Ecological Intelligence: How Knowing the Hidden Impacts of What We Buy Can Change Everything. He wrote about his ideas in a Harvard Business Review blog (“Winning in an Age of Radical Transparency” May 27) on the dynamics of the competitive marketplace in coming years.   Given the new transparency that is made possible by technology Goleman argues, everything will change.

The theory, Goleman notes, is that the more transparent a market the healthier it will be.  Giving customers the benefits of social welfare, holding back prices, enforcing consumer protections with competitive services and growing a more concerned and aware consumer constituency for the products that they purchase – all of these are the benefits of the open market and information symmetry.

In seeking to remedy the ills that lead to the financial crisis, there has been a great deal of discussions of using transparency to facilitate the self-regulation that was missing leading to the market crash.  When President Obama took office, he asserted that his administration would use transparency to improve the ethics of government and the performance of programs.  Government-wide there is more access to the inner workings of federal program expenditures and acquisition in ways that has never been possible in the past.

In his new book, Goleman explores the implication for consumer markets of the parallel between transparency in financial regulation and revealing the ecological impacts of consumer goods.  “There are signs of a trend toward greater marketplace openness about the environmental and health consequences of products.”  He notes that the launch this year of Goodguide.com is a significant departure in giving consumers inside information.

Goleman envisions a world of radical transparency in which Life Cycle Assessments are not only available to consumers but are required of future companies.   As secrecy is rendered ineffective by such trends as the obligation to publish the contents of the product, the competitive advantage that could have been gained from surprise will be lost.  Competitors will find it far easier to benchmark the high performing enterprise in their markets.  They can accelerate their movement to the high performance frontier and take away any performance related competitive advantages that their competitors might have enjoyed.

Quoting from Andy Grove’s book, Only Paranoids Survive Goleman notes “When Intel faced its first Valley of Death — the drying up of its market for chips — the company survived because it had a ready alternative: a small microprocessor business it had built on the side.”  The examples of Intel suggest a lesson for companies today, “companies would be prudent to have a strategy ready for an era of radical transparency.” Goleman argues.   “Remember, revolutions that seemed impossible will, in retrospect, seem inevitable.”

The Sound of the Falls

September 2nd

In an ongoing tableau of changes taking place at the center of the U.S. economy, the following notices appeared in the trade press that covers the mailing and delivery industries, postcom.org:

  • Downsizing the workforce.  “In the wake of mounting financial losses, the U.S. Postal Service has offered 30,000 employees financial incentive to retire by the end of this fiscal year. The USPS has targeted two of its major unions, the American Postal Workers Union (APWU) and the National Postal Mail Handlers Union (NPMHU) to accelerate reduction of employees. The majority of employees eligible for the incentive work in mail processing facilities.”
  • Reducing the facility footprint.  “The U.S. Postal Service has finally released its Facilities Plan that it submitted to Congress on June 19, 2008 in accordance with the Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act (PAEA) section 302. The 51-page document lays out what the Postal Service is looking to do in the near future to continue cost cutting and matching its resources to revenue.”
  • Anticipating the policy debate to come.  American Postal Workers Union President William Burrus talks with his members about the challenges and the future of the U.S. Postal Service.  “In his thought provoking piece, APWU President William Burrus summarized the challenge facing the Postal Service and its employees succinctly…as Congress rethinks the business model for the Postal Service, the union President asks…”Is the Postal Service’s business still a governmental function?”
  • Meanwhile the Postal Service and its customers discuss service cuts…”The U.S. Postal Service in conjunction with the Mailer’s Technical Advisory Committee (MTAC) has issued an industry survey regarding 5-day delivery…

In the meantime, in the September Union Newsletter of the American Postal Workers Union contains the following call (unsigned):

“I believe that APWU members should join with other groups and unions that are confronting corporate power. There is a need for education and communication to understand our class interest, not only to enlighten and motivate current members, but to also broaden our base by bringing in new activists.

The Postal Service is suffering from a financial hardship created in part by modern technology. With the use of faxes, e-mail, the Internet, and teleconferencing, there has been a decrease in mail volume. But the Postal Service is also suffering from the failed economy and failed business models.

The result has been the excessing of postal employees at installations all over the country, with jobs continuously being lost or at risk of being eliminated. If the “no-layoff clause” ceases to exist in our next collective bargaining agreement, postal workers would be just as susceptible to losing their jobs in the future as other workers are today.

The time to become alarmed about our welfare as workers is not after a catastrophic event, but before it happens. Our concern, however, should be not just for our jobs and our potential loss of benefits, but for all working-class people in this country who are being denied the opportunity for a decent life.

The problems that we continue to face are numerous. Millions of Americans lack health insurance and have inadequate coverage for prescription medication; the child poverty rate is on the rise; there are serious deficiencies in our education system; and we have major environmental challenges.

America’s poor and its workers are losing the class war. The poor, minorities, immigrants, members of unions, progressives, and environmentalists must join in a national effort to challenge the corporate order and empower themselves so that they can control their own economic and political destinies.

Working-class men and women must unite. There has to be an unrelenting focus on breaking the iron grip that big corporations have on our country and our lives.

Wake up, postal workers! We have a class war on our hands whether we like it or not!”

The Stone Age Didn’t End Because the World Ran Out of Stones

August 25th

In an article on the Saudi reaction to President Obama’s call for Energy Independence Jad Mouawad of the New York Times “Green Inc.” notes the ever-present dynamics of the geopolitics of oil.  (“Saudi Blasts American Energy Policy.”)

The Saudis are as sensitive to the cross currents of energy policy change as anyone.  In “In a short and strongly-worded essay in Foreign Policy magazine, Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former ambassador to the United States and a nephew to King Abdullah” critiques the broad statements of the Obama Administration.  His point recalls Sheik Yamani’s famous line about the stone age.

What this thought points to is the question of how soon green technology is going to replace the oil economy.  While it makes the stream of articles on China’s development of solar panels and electric vehicles all the more interesting, it does recognize that no one can imagine a technology that is going to radically shift the energy balance in the next five years.

In the meantime, OPEC looks quite different today than it did in 1973.  The difference is not in the names of the countries that are the sources of oil but in their leadership and their relationship to the U.S.  Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria could not be more different today than they were in 1973 when Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon first launched the policy of “energy independence.”

The Hardest Prediction of All, Seeing the Future

August 24th

Predicting the future makes most people so nervous that they often make the same joke about Yogi Berra’s insight that the future is the hardest thing to forecast.   But in spite of the normal anxiety, we can anticipate that there are going to be a boatload of stories about the future now that it begins to appear that the financial crisis is passing.

Today brought two new contributions.  First, Deutsche Post has just published a study of the future entitled “Delivering Tomorrow: Customer Needs in 2020 and Beyond, a Global Delphi Study.”  The study draws conclusions from an intensive examination of expert perspectives on a number of critical issues that will define our future:  what will happen to the price of oil?  what will the progress of climate change mean?  how will global interactivity evolve?

Perhaps the cultural differences in perspective offer theses about the future that move beyond traditional boundaries.  Or, possibly its just going to be more interesting to think about these long term issues now that we are on this side of the financial crisis than on the old, optimistic one with which we are familiar.  But the 2020 study offers numerous startling theses.  What will a world look like when China is the undisputed winner of global economic competition?  What will global transportation be like when polar routes have been opened up by polar melting.

The McKinsey Quarterly then wrote about one of its classic articles, the next revolution in interaction,  Like Deutsche Post, McKinsey found that the progression of interactive technologies will continue to evolve and to shape the future.   The point of the 2004 article from McKinsey was to encourage a focus on trends that will enable companies to attain sustainable competitive advantage.

Instead of strategies that focus on cost cutting, a short-term benefit that can ultimately be copied, both research sources encouraged their readers to focus on trends that would enable customized solutions.  Whether the discussion is of the evolution of the logistics business or the changing nature of enterprise in an information rich marketplace, trends that make it possible to individualize solutions will be dominant ones in shaping the future.  For those who become anxious with discussion of the future and its uncertainties, these studies point to the need to engineer organizations and infrastructures that facilitate agility and adaptability to changing customer requirements.

This may be hard to communicate.  Individualization?  Adaptability?  Most will say, but what will the future be like?  Talk of “open standards” and “plug and play” solutions seems to be a slide into software jargon.  Yet the idea of creating a framework that is the opposite of command and control seems to be captured by the iPhone ads.  Apple has communicated a framework.  Understanding that “there’s an ap for that” may turn out to be Steve Jobs biggest contribution of all.

Calling the Turn

August 20th

The financial crisis of 2008 raised the question of whether we are facing a turn, resetting to a new normal or pausing before the resumption of growth. Knowing where you are is critical. Those who bet on future growth that doesn’t materialize will lose the race and even bankrupt themselves. But those who bet on decline when they are only seeing a pause will stagnate and they too will lose.

What’s hard to see from the outside is the way that the stakeholders will work overtime to assert that the curves are heading up. Vested interest is so powerful that they will honestly believe that the Sun is the Moon.

Great leaders will have the courage to call the turn.

Listening to Jim Collins talk about his new book How the Mighty Fall, in which he traces the five stages of ascendancy and decline, you can see that this is is going to be one of the enduring questions of our time.

The experience of living through the worst financial decline in 80 years and not being sure of what you saw will be an framing memory that will structure our perceptions.  The fear of imminent decline will cast a long shadow into the future.s